THE LAHORE LOG: 'Perpetual enemies'
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'Perpetual enemies' By
Published: 22:05 GMT, 3 May 2012 | Updated: 22:05 GMT, 3 May 2012
Two years ago the US and Pakistan were touting a strategic, long term, relationship.
Today they are barely able to admit a transactional, short term, one.
The trouble started with the Raymond Davis affair in February last year, plumbed new depths with the US Navy Seal raid to kill OBL in Abbottabad in May and hit rock bottom with the Salala incident last November.
In each case, US action notched up anti-Americanism in Pakistan, severely embarrassed the government and military and stiffened their resistance to American unilateralism in the region.
Pakistan's Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar shakes hands with U.S.
special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Marc Grossman at the foreign ministry in Islamabad
Where do we go from here? Pakistan's parliament has taken nearly six months to formulate its position on renegotiating terms of engagement with the US.
The sticking point remains America's drone policy.
The military is opposed to drone strikes against the Haqqani network in Waziristan because it is viewed as a long-term 'asset'. The public resents it as a blatant violation of Pakistan's sovereignty.
The elected government is unwilling to incur public wrath in an election year simply to appease the US, notwithstanding its obvious transactional losses in the shape of bilateral budgetary grants, multilateral balance of payments support (especially from the IMF), and Coalition Support Funds, weapons and spares for the military.
Meanwhile, the delay in reopening the NATO pipeline from Karachi to Kabul as a consequence of all this is cause for rising anger in Washington. It is also an election year in America - nearly 70 per cent of the public wants most of 'the boys' back home by 2014 as pledged by the Obama administration.
Supporters of Pakistan's religious party Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Nazriati group) burn representation of US flag at a pro-Osama bin Laden rally in Quetta, Pakistan on Wednesday
But the Afghan endgame is not shaping up as strategised.
The bilateral Qatar dialogue with the Taliban has been stalled over last minute changes in pre-conditions by the Americans. The trilateral commission comprising Pakistan, Afghanistan and US isn't making much headway in nudging the Taliban to come in from the cold.
And the recent Taliban raids in Kabul have demonstrated their ability to launch a spring offensive to shake the Kabul regime and embarrass America. Last but not least, the Americans have had to 'apologise' to Kabul for the Quran burning incident and the killing spree of one of their soldiers.
Under the circumstances, the Obama administration has balked over offering another 'apology' for the Salala incident because it might provoke the Republican opposition to belittle the Democrats in the eyes of the 'American people'.
Fortunately, both Pakistan and the US recognise the need to cooperate in order to protect their respective interests.
In Pakistan's case, this means an American acknowledgement of Pakistan's legitimate sovereignty claims (drone policy) coupled with maximum political space for the Pushtun Afghan Taliban in any endgame-settlement.
In America's case, it means a restoration of the NATO pipeline coupled with Pakistani prodding of the Afghan Taliban to cease-fire and come to the negotiating table.
Pakistan's civil-military leaders are grappling with a policy formulation that restores the NATO pipeline, restricts the drones and reduces the US Intel footprint in Pakistan to the minimal satisfaction of the Pakistani opposition and public in exchange for maximum economic and military assistance coupled with greater American flexibility vis-à-vis the Haqqani network.
To facilitate this in the eyes of their own public, they are, however belatedly, claiming a cooperative role in helping America track down OBL last year - recent interviews by ISI officials and by the Pakistani defence minister testify to this initiative.
But the military will have to make a forceful endorsement of this policy before the public than it has done so far if it is to nudge the government to own it unequivocally. It will also have to shield the Zardari government from crumbling in the face of an overly aggressive judiciary and opposition. Any regime change at this stage would jeopardise attempts to bring the US-Pak relationship back on track.
A recent statement by the army chief, General Kayani, stressing the need for all institutions of the state not to transgress the limits of their constitutional authority, however ironic in view of the repeated culpability of the military on this score, is aimed at stabilising the government.
The US must reciprocate in order to break the deadlock with Pakistan. It should agree to a more acceptable 'management' of the drone programme.
It should fully back the trilateral dialogue with Pakistan and Afghanistan aimed at securing a 'proper' seat for the Afghan Taliban into the power endgame instead of stressing a bilateral dialogue with the Taliban that creates unease in Kabul and Islamabad.
It should not balk at an appropriate acknowledgment of its responsibility for Salala. And it should not be financially niggardly with Islamabad while being overly generous with Kabul.
Itefaqnama: A fictitous diary of Nawaz Sharif
By JUGNU MOHSIN
Pakistan's former prime minister Nawaz Sharif
On top I am saying that I want this gormint to go but inside inside I want them to complete term so that all gormints from now on complete their terms.
Also, I don't want that faujis should take advantage of civil strive, so it is all carefully calibrated opposition.
Hens, I am writing latter in Arabic to Yousaf Raza Gilani, so that faujis cannot read it.
'Latter fi khidmat al wazir-e-azam al-Pakistan. Subject: al-opposition far sake of al-opposition. Ya brother. Awal, yani fust, a few words about basant, tehwar al- Hind fi also Muslimeen haza shaukeen w'al Lahore fi Kasur.
Al-basant al-tahwar al-qadeem, yani paanch saat hazaar saal qabl Masih fi Awami Jamhooriya-e- Cheen.
Al-l awam al-naas hugely enjoy tafreeh w'al basant, ba-shamool Self (Nwaz) who is shaukeen albasant al be-inteha but w'al la kinna Shbaz Saab who is khilaaf-un shadeed-un dhol dhamakka wa patang bazi wa mauj mela in Lahore.
Afson-un shadeed-un. Shbaz Saab al-leges that al-basant is sakafat al-Hind w'al Yahood-o-Hunood.
Haza views nihayat dakyanoos w'al retrogressive w'al fazool. 'And now for rasoomat al-opposition fil for the sake of form.
Shukran ya brother, do not be al-armed by tankeed barai tankeed. Al-though criticism will be latadaad, no cause far al-arm or al-ertness.
Al-l will be well, pls carry on with amoor al-loot maar. It is al-most end of your term and haza min-istry w'al prime.
La'anat al-l those who wish to hijack haza al-jamhoor and if done, it will be al-zulm be-inteha and nihayat wa' hayat which will not be al-lowed, Inshallah. Al-ready Pakistan is maflooj al-behaal, what these extra-constitutional hijackers want to achieve, hain ji?'
That was part one of my latter to Yousaf Raza Gilani.
Naxt part was written in French so that once again, faujis cannot read it.
'Mon cherry Ministiere d'prime. Bon Jovi (good morning). At next l'state banquete, pas de poisonous soucis and pour le generale's dish.
All vous probleme weel fin. Allez rememboire zees.
Jouste d'onte taille anyounne zat Nouveaux Shareef pout eau up tu it. Link Alternatif, next choix. Sans needs oxygene. Puttez ze off aire conditionaire in zis 'eat, c'est killeur.
Dieu eet weez l'Aseef and vouz bose weel be heureux l'nation d'entire, hain ji.
Jouste d'onte taille anyounne zat Nouveaux Shareef pout eau up tu it.
Apres moi le deluge vive le France Perrier wateur and Carrefour supermarche Coco Chanel et Bridgette Bardot and Carla Bruni and Sarcasny Cozy l'presidente de republique la Francaise et moi du prince de La Hore et being a'tacquede by l'generale conspirateur supporteurs of la agent d'Yahood-o-Hunood Imran.
Informez vouz l'presidente Eau B'ama when eau c'est him.
Jouste d'onte taille anyounne zat Nouveaux Shareef pout eau up tu it.' O river! Nouveaux Shareef.
Published: 22:05 GMT, 3 May 2012 | Updated: 22:05 GMT, 3 May 2012
Two years ago the US and Pakistan were touting a strategic, long term, relationship.
Today they are barely able to admit a transactional, short term, one.
The trouble started with the Raymond Davis affair in February last year, plumbed new depths with the US Navy Seal raid to kill OBL in Abbottabad in May and hit rock bottom with the Salala incident last November.
In each case, US action notched up anti-Americanism in Pakistan, severely embarrassed the government and military and stiffened their resistance to American unilateralism in the region.
Pakistan's Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar shakes hands with U.S.
special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Marc Grossman at the foreign ministry in Islamabad
Where do we go from here? Pakistan's parliament has taken nearly six months to formulate its position on renegotiating terms of engagement with the US.
The sticking point remains America's drone policy.
The military is opposed to drone strikes against the Haqqani network in Waziristan because it is viewed as a long-term 'asset'. The public resents it as a blatant violation of Pakistan's sovereignty.
The elected government is unwilling to incur public wrath in an election year simply to appease the US, notwithstanding its obvious transactional losses in the shape of bilateral budgetary grants, multilateral balance of payments support (especially from the IMF), and Coalition Support Funds, weapons and spares for the military.
Meanwhile, the delay in reopening the NATO pipeline from Karachi to Kabul as a consequence of all this is cause for rising anger in Washington. It is also an election year in America - nearly 70 per cent of the public wants most of 'the boys' back home by 2014 as pledged by the Obama administration.
Supporters of Pakistan's religious party Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Nazriati group) burn representation of US flag at a pro-Osama bin Laden rally in Quetta, Pakistan on Wednesday
But the Afghan endgame is not shaping up as strategised.
The bilateral Qatar dialogue with the Taliban has been stalled over last minute changes in pre-conditions by the Americans. The trilateral commission comprising Pakistan, Afghanistan and US isn't making much headway in nudging the Taliban to come in from the cold.
And the recent Taliban raids in Kabul have demonstrated their ability to launch a spring offensive to shake the Kabul regime and embarrass America. Last but not least, the Americans have had to 'apologise' to Kabul for the Quran burning incident and the killing spree of one of their soldiers.
Under the circumstances, the Obama administration has balked over offering another 'apology' for the Salala incident because it might provoke the Republican opposition to belittle the Democrats in the eyes of the 'American people'.
Fortunately, both Pakistan and the US recognise the need to cooperate in order to protect their respective interests.
In Pakistan's case, this means an American acknowledgement of Pakistan's legitimate sovereignty claims (drone policy) coupled with maximum political space for the Pushtun Afghan Taliban in any endgame-settlement.
In America's case, it means a restoration of the NATO pipeline coupled with Pakistani prodding of the Afghan Taliban to cease-fire and come to the negotiating table.
Pakistan's civil-military leaders are grappling with a policy formulation that restores the NATO pipeline, restricts the drones and reduces the US Intel footprint in Pakistan to the minimal satisfaction of the Pakistani opposition and public in exchange for maximum economic and military assistance coupled with greater American flexibility vis-à-vis the Haqqani network.
To facilitate this in the eyes of their own public, they are, however belatedly, claiming a cooperative role in helping America track down OBL last year - recent interviews by ISI officials and by the Pakistani defence minister testify to this initiative.
But the military will have to make a forceful endorsement of this policy before the public than it has done so far if it is to nudge the government to own it unequivocally. It will also have to shield the Zardari government from crumbling in the face of an overly aggressive judiciary and opposition. Any regime change at this stage would jeopardise attempts to bring the US-Pak relationship back on track.
A recent statement by the army chief, General Kayani, stressing the need for all institutions of the state not to transgress the limits of their constitutional authority, however ironic in view of the repeated culpability of the military on this score, is aimed at stabilising the government.
The US must reciprocate in order to break the deadlock with Pakistan. It should agree to a more acceptable 'management' of the drone programme.
It should fully back the trilateral dialogue with Pakistan and Afghanistan aimed at securing a 'proper' seat for the Afghan Taliban into the power endgame instead of stressing a bilateral dialogue with the Taliban that creates unease in Kabul and Islamabad.
It should not balk at an appropriate acknowledgment of its responsibility for Salala. And it should not be financially niggardly with Islamabad while being overly generous with Kabul.
Itefaqnama: A fictitous diary of Nawaz Sharif
By JUGNU MOHSIN
Pakistan's former prime minister Nawaz Sharif
On top I am saying that I want this gormint to go but inside inside I want them to complete term so that all gormints from now on complete their terms.
Also, I don't want that faujis should take advantage of civil strive, so it is all carefully calibrated opposition.
Hens, I am writing latter in Arabic to Yousaf Raza Gilani, so that faujis cannot read it.
'Latter fi khidmat al wazir-e-azam al-Pakistan. Subject: al-opposition far sake of al-opposition. Ya brother. Awal, yani fust, a few words about basant, tehwar al- Hind fi also Muslimeen haza shaukeen w'al Lahore fi Kasur.
Al-basant al-tahwar al-qadeem, yani paanch saat hazaar saal qabl Masih fi Awami Jamhooriya-e- Cheen.
Al-l awam al-naas hugely enjoy tafreeh w'al basant, ba-shamool Self (Nwaz) who is shaukeen albasant al be-inteha but w'al la kinna Shbaz Saab who is khilaaf-un shadeed-un dhol dhamakka wa patang bazi wa mauj mela in Lahore.
Afson-un shadeed-un. Shbaz Saab al-leges that al-basant is sakafat al-Hind w'al Yahood-o-Hunood.
Haza views nihayat dakyanoos w'al retrogressive w'al fazool. 'And now for rasoomat al-opposition fil for the sake of form.
Shukran ya brother, do not be al-armed by tankeed barai tankeed. Al-though criticism will be latadaad, no cause far al-arm or al-ertness.
Al-l will be well, pls carry on with amoor al-loot maar. It is al-most end of your term and haza min-istry w'al prime.
La'anat al-l those who wish to hijack haza al-jamhoor and if done, it will be al-zulm be-inteha and nihayat wa' hayat which will not be al-lowed, Inshallah. Al-ready Pakistan is maflooj al-behaal, what these extra-constitutional hijackers want to achieve, hain ji?'
That was part one of my latter to Yousaf Raza Gilani.
Naxt part was written in French so that once again, faujis cannot read it.
'Mon cherry Ministiere d'prime. Bon Jovi (good morning). At next l'state banquete, pas de poisonous soucis and pour le generale's dish.
All vous probleme weel fin. Allez rememboire zees.
Jouste d'onte taille anyounne zat Nouveaux Shareef pout eau up tu it. Link Alternatif, next choix. Sans needs oxygene. Puttez ze off aire conditionaire in zis 'eat, c'est killeur.
Dieu eet weez l'Aseef and vouz bose weel be heureux l'nation d'entire, hain ji.
Jouste d'onte taille anyounne zat Nouveaux Shareef pout eau up tu it.
Apres moi le deluge vive le France Perrier wateur and Carrefour supermarche Coco Chanel et Bridgette Bardot and Carla Bruni and Sarcasny Cozy l'presidente de republique la Francaise et moi du prince de La Hore et being a'tacquede by l'generale conspirateur supporteurs of la agent d'Yahood-o-Hunood Imran.
Informez vouz l'presidente Eau B'ama when eau c'est him.
Jouste d'onte taille anyounne zat Nouveaux Shareef pout eau up tu it.' O river! Nouveaux Shareef.
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